Well, so Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has kind of interrupted my big lecture on the American Constitution. Don’t worry, I’ll get back to it.
So, why did Russia invade Ukraine. If you want a really good but brief historical account, please see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK-yJD_fAtk from GRAVITAS PLUS. Never seen them before but this was pretty good.
Although many military experts went out of their way to explain why invading was not in Russia’s interest, it happened. Were the experts wrong, NO, I don’t think so. I do believe that the original intent may have been gaining concessions from the West, mainly the territory of Luhansk and Donetsk, the two separatist republics. After all, after taking Crimea a, no one cared that the Minsk Agreements of 2014 were not enforced and no-one cared about it, except the Ukrainians themselves perhaps.
So, Possible reasons are:
When you have political problems at home, invading someone is always a good way of diverting attention from domestic problems, this is called diversionary wars. Even if this started as a threat to get concessions, and it did not work, then it could easily have evolved into doing the real invasion to save face. Do not get me wrong, there are some good points and possible gains for invading Ukraine, but there are probably more for not doing so.
A smart Putin will invade and negotiate a final settlement that will leave him with the Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, all of them recognized and accepted by the international community, which he does not have right now even with Crimea. By the way, a little more territory that would give him a land bridge to Crimea and encircled the Sea of Azov would also be very advantageous for Russia. That means he will have to take the southern parts of the regions of Zaporiz’ka and Khersons’ka, and what a coincidence that the Dnieper river would make a nice natural border that will separate these two regions from the rest of Ukraine. None of these would be demands that would even be considered by neither Ukraine nor the West; but if it comes to accepting this deal vs. loosing absolutely all its territory or starting World War 3, it suddenly becomes a more palatable settlement.
PUTIN’S GAMBLE:
Best case: Get all of Ukraine Back into Russian Control.
Most Likely: Get the two breakaway regions and Crimea with International Recognition
Worst: Out of Ukraine, keep Crimea, go to all time high in popularity with Russian people.