A good chess player will tell you that you will get checkmated not by the move you see next, but by the one you have not seen later.
Almost every top foreign policy expert is warning about the link between Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s designs in Taiwan. The Chinese are too smart to show their hand like that. Not only do they have really good chess players, but they also have Xiangqi, Chinese chess, which has about 10 times more legal board positions than chess and is 37 times more complex. I have never played it, so I am relaying completely in what I have read about it.
According to Trading Economics, Russia imported $54.91B from China in 2020, as compared to $23.38B from Germany and $13.21B from the United States. China is also the top importer of Russian goods; more than $57B. For the Biden administration to claim that the sanctions imposed are a devastating cost on Russia is a Joke. No sanctions will work without China participation. I am not saying that they will not hurt, but they are not enough to stop Russia’s aggression, and they know it. In fact, the China-Russia trade for 2021 was a little less that $150B, and they have vowed to raise their trade turnover to $200B by 2024 (https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Ukraine-crisis-looms-large-as-China-Russia-trade-tops-record-140bn) $200B basically replaces must of Russians trade with almost the other top 10 western trading partners they had in 2019.
So, the sanctions we are imposing in Russia, will not only be ineffective, but also will strengthen the ties between our two biggest rivals: Russia and China. More importantly is that after the dust settles, Russia will import $100B plus of its $250B in imports that it did in 2019 (or 40%) from China. Possibly more as the other Western economies increase the sanctions.
We already know that the US economy depends heavily in China imports. In 2021 the US imported over $500B from China, we exported $151B for a nice trade deficit of $355B. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) By the way, we should note that imports from China have increased almost every year since 1985 when we imported only $3.86B. And the only time that is has gone down for two years in the row was in 2019 to $450B, down $108B from 2018, and the following year 2020 to $434.75B (down another $15B), both under President Trump. One year with President Biden and we are up to $506.37B (https://www.statista.com/statistics/187675/volume-of-us-imports-of-trade-goods-from-china-since-1985/ ) The US imports from China account for 18.6% of the overall US imports in 2020. China’s share of global merchandise exports in 2020 was 14.7%, and global service exports for the same year was 5.7%, and increasing.
Back to our main point. Russian President Putin and China’s President Xi Jinping have met in various occasions since last year, last one we know of was in Beijing on Feb 4. This week, while most diplomats at an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting condemned Vladimir Putin’s government for escalating tensions with Ukraine, China’s envoy carefully avoided any mention of Russia. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-22/putin-escalation-leaves-china-s-xi-with-difficult-balancing-act) The New Yorker, in Feb 24 quoted Angela Stent, a Russia specialist at Georgetown University and the author of “Putin’s World,” said, “I want to underline that Vladimir Putin would not have embarked on this aggression against Ukraine at this time, if he didn’t know that he would have Chinese support.” (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-is-china-learning-from-russias-invasion-of-ukraine) and therefore, the ability to outlast any sanctions that the US and the West could impose.
President Putin and President Xi Jinping are united, in part, by their belief that the West is in an inexorable decline, which they have framed, in effect, as a vindication of autocracy. They have similar views on the current world situation and the same philosophy of national governance. As of lately, both leaders have become increasingly bold about pursuing territorial ambitions. Russian in Ukraine and other places, and China in the South and East China Seas, the Indian border, and of course Taiwan.
But the Chinese know that the US commitment to Taiwan is very different to that of Ukraine. The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA; Pub.L. 96–8, 93 Stat. 14, enacted April 10, 1979; H.R. 2479) is an act of the United States Congress. Since the recognition of the People’s Republic of China, the Act has defined the officially substantial but non-diplomatic relations between the people of the United States and the people of Taiwan. Although the act does not guarantee that the US will intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan, it does provide for sufficient self-defense capabilities and stipulates that the United States will “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific.” All Presidents, including President Biden himself, has express a “commitment” to protect Taiwan. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/22/us/politics/biden-taiwan-defense-china.html
Regretfully, we already know how similar commitments have ended in other places. Vietnam, Korea, and lately Iraq and Afghanistan. Not very reassuring for Taiwan, but at least there is Congress, which could authorize military action. No such commitments exist between the US and Ukraine.
The US policy for Taiwan has been always that of strategic ambiguity, we support Taiwan as long as it does not declare independence, and we support China as long as it does not invade Taiwan. The question becomes, how long will China be willing to live with this status-quo, how much longer are they willing to wait for the fall of the west, or how long would they wait until the Taiwanese themselves elect to reunite with China; all three require time, lots of it, which we now know that President Xi Jinping may not be willing to wait. China must secure its norther border with Russia, and make sure that Russia impedes any resolution or action that the US may want to pursuit thru the United Nations Security Council. A lesson they learned when the United Nations Security Council Resolution 82 passed on June 25, 1950 which eventually authorized the Korean War. The resolution was passed with 9 in support, none opposed, and one abstention, who was the Soviet Union who was boycotting out of all things, the UN for recognizing the Republic of China as China.
The main deterrence for China to invade Taiwan is truly the Taiwanese themselves, and their ability to engage in a prolonged and deadly resistance war that will consume China resources and Chinese soldiers’ lives. This is the same reason why Putin will be smart in invading Ukraine and negotiating a quick exit from the non-Russian sympathizer regions of the country. The lesson for China is in following Putin’s strategy of infiltrating the region, fomenting distrust in the local government, and supporting the Chinese Reunification Political movements, which is probably doing already.
How far are they from attaining that? Currently, The Taiwanese Pan-Green coalition which favors becoming a sovereign state has 65 of the 113 parliamentary seats against the 38 controlled by the Pan-Blue coalition, which advocates for Chinese reunification. In 2020 President Tsai Ing-wen won a second term with 57.1% of the vote keeping the Pan-Green coalition in-charge, the second and third place candidates, both pro-unification with China combined for 42.8% of the vote. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/11/tsai-ing-wen-wins-landslide-in-taiwan-presidential-election. However, even if the Pan-Blue Coalition wins the election it does not mean that Taiwan will unify with China immediately. Pan-Blue has won in the past, and as a constitutional republic, it will take a few more steps, like probably a referendum or two to do so.
The danger lies on whether President Xi Jinping and the Chinese communist have the patience for this process to take place. China has previously offered a similar “one country, two systems” arrangement, like Hong Kong. Hong Kong, however, has shown many young Taiwanese that Beijing is an untrustworthy partner. Like on January 1st, 2020, thousands of demonstrators, started peacefully along a main road from Victoria Park to the downtown business district. Three hours later, the police revoked the permission to march and fired tear gas, water cannons, and arrested about 400 protesters. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/1/first-hong-kong-rally-of-2020-ends-in-clashes
Furthermore, although many young people in Taiwan see themselves at Taiwanese, and not Chinese, older Taiwanese and those concerned about the economy would like to align themselves with the economic powerhouse that China represents.
Is China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the opening pawn first move in a long-protracted game of chess with the US and the West? Well, YES, but is in no way the opening move, this game has been underway for a while, and America is losing it. Is Taiwan one of the strategic pieces that China would like to acquire along the game? Absolutely. How long this game takes, how many pieces (democracies) are lost along the way, and who wins the game in the end very much depends on the player or players that we chose to represent our side and the moves we make. We can only hope that a bad player does not give away the game in their 4 years at the seat, when we have the opportunity to elect hopefully another stronger player to play the game.
What is the game we are playing? The survival of democracy and the United States as its standard bearer throughout the world.