One of Putin’s stated reasons for the invasion of Ukraine is to stop the expansion of NATO into Russia’s borders. But Ukraine is not the only nation in the Russian border to seek NATO membership. The Democratic Republic of Georgia, or Georgia for short is too. Georgia declared independence in 1991, just prior to the collapse of the USSR. Following independence Georgia went thru a two-year civil way with the separatist movements in the Russia-leaning regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The war ended in late 1993, leaving economic, political, and social instability in its wake. Continued friction in the Russian-leaning separatist regions turned into a hot conflict on August 1 of 2008, which Russia used as a pretext to invade Georgian lands. The 12-day war displaced nearly 200,000 people before a ceasefire was signed and ultimately crippled the economy, reducing GDP by about 70%. Today, as we have stated earlier Russia occupies 20% of Georgia territory. Georgia, unlike Maldova has moved onward and upward, economically and in terms of standard of living. Some of Georgia’s economic saving graces over the years have been its strength in manufacturing, wine production and – due to its many resorts along the coast and in its mountain ranges – tourism. *1 Georgia, also borders Armenia, and Azerbaijan, both former Russian republics which have become very friendly with NATO and aspire to become NATO’s full member. If Russia is to prevent these 3 states from becoming NATO members right at their borders, they will have to act now, before any agreements of self-defense are signed. Azerbaijan and/or Armenia would also give Russia direct land communications with Iran, another of the United States archrivals. Iran would also provide Russia with direct access to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, which are very needed if Turkey was to close access from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean and Denmark would close access to the North Sea from the Baltic Sea. These warm-water ports would enable Russia to project power as its fleets to the North are heavily impacted by the Frozen ports of the Barents Sea.
Georgia, along with its neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan are doing the best balancing act they can in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 22, the day after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Moscow to sign an agreement increasing the two countries’ military and diplomatic cooperation. President Aliyev denied hat this was a measure of support for Russia’s side, rather, the trip had been planned for a while. Azerbaijan has a historically strong relationship with Ukraine and has been quietly sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine while at the same time making sure it does not antagonize Russia.
Armenia is in an even more difficult position due to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, a decades-long war over this breakaway, primarily ethnic Armenian region in Azerbaijan. A member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia hosts more than 10,000 Russian soldiers, including a Russian military base, Russian border guards and a Russian peacekeeping force in the Armenian-controlled areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. *2
The Russian have always been wary of any NATO expansion into its border, like with Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia. Hungary and Romania, and it has gone to great extend to warn if not threaten other countries not to follow suit, even Finland and Sweden. The threat from Russia arguably became clear in 2014, when its forces entered Ukraine and annexed Crimea. As a result, Finland has been modernizing its own military and moving closer to NATO. In 2014, Finland signed a treaty granting NATO troops support and transit through the country in times of crisis. And in 2022, NATO announced it would include Finland in alliance information-sharing during the war in Ukraine. *3
Sweden has not been in a war since 1814 and has built its foreign policy on “non-participation in military alliances.” It remained neutral throughout World War Two even as neighboring Nordic countries were invaded, and during the Cold War. However, the climate has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For he first time, in a poll conducted in late February, 51% of Swedes are in favor of NATO membership. And in an unprecedented move, for the first time since 1939, Sweden is sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine, a country at war *4
There are a few remaining European countries that are not NATO members, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. While Switzerland and Austria are a little farther away geographically, B&H and Serbia. Despite their neutrality, these countries voices opinions and sanctions other countries. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Austria has sent humanitarian help, including defensive equipment and fuel, to Ukrainians. *5 Both Austria and Switzerland, have adopted severe sanctions against Russia and condemned the Russian military action in the United Nations. *6 The Russian attack on Ukraine has been condemned by Hereditary Prince Alois of Liechtenstein in the strongest possible terms. *7 Bosnia and Herzegovina have already been warned by Russia that they could become the next Ukraine if they join NATO. *8 Serbia, in the other hand, is heavily divided. Society and media are divided about the war in Ukraine. More than 61% of the Serbian trade is with the EU member states, but Russia supports Serbia in its political struggle to prevent what Belgrade considers to be its breakaway province of Kosovo from becoming a member of the United Nations, and Russia is among the four biggest trade partners for Serbia and has a free trade agreement with Belgrade. *9 If Russia was to act against B&H, it cannot go thru Romania, but it could strong arm Serbia into accepting Russian troops and serve as a staging ground for the invasion of B&H. The final European nation that I have not mentioned before is Ireland, which maintains military neutrality even thought is facing an internal struggle because of the Ukrainian war. *10
Out of all these different scenarios, which will serve Putin best. I am not talking about what is best for Russia, but what does Putin needs to do to maintain Power. Mr. Putin is running out of time.
By far, all analysts have stated that Russia, due to its overwhelming military apparatus will eventually prevail in Ukraine. No one thought that we would be in the 4th week of the invasion and Kiev has not fallen. Furthermore, that the Ukrainians were resisting as efficiently as they have so far. Conventional wisdom would say that the stronger country, over time, will win as its resources come into play to sustain the war. However, in Ukraine, we may be witnessing quite the opposite. Since the beginning of the invasion, more than 320,000 citizens have returned home to help Ukraine fight the Russians. *11 That is the equivalent in manpower of 12 plus US Army Combat Divisions. Clearly, not with the same experience, training, firepower, or resources, but the numbers are staggering. With each day, more and more material is arriving in Ukraine from all the supporting nations. Russian does maintain a sizeable lead especially in artillery which includes rockets. And it has used that advantage to level villages and part of cities with heavy opposition, and regretfully civilian population centers. Russian also maintains superior air power, which will be only taken away by the massive deployment of shoulder fire anti-air missiles, like the US supplied during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, or a declaration and enforcement of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which NATO is not supporting, as it will put us in a direct line of combat with Russian warplanes and helicopters. All this support has enabled the Ukrainians to stop the Russian momentum, mount heavier than expected resistance, and force a stalemate in parts of the country. With every passing day, Putin also risks the lose of support back in Russia, as the truth of what is happening reaches the Russian population thru other than state-controlled media. From the military standpoint, the former US commanding general of the United States Army Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said on Monday in an interview in CNN that Russians are about 10 days away from depleting their resources.
Regretfully, each day also brings tens of thousands of refugees crossing the Ukrainian borders away from the senseless killing of civilian and non-combatant lives. As of March 20, more than 3.2 million people have fled Ukraine, creating what the United Nations calls the fastest growing refugee crisis since WW II. *12 The United Nations also estimates that some 1.85 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced inside the war-torn country. The UN High Commission for Refugees has estimated that some 12 million people inside of Ukraine will need assistance. *13 So far, every country has opened their arms and is welcoming refugees, but the closest countries to the conflict are also the poorest, so many refugees will have to continue West towards the other EU member countries. With the world still recovering from COVID, economic crisis everywhere, and the shadow of a full war looming over Europe; for how long any or all countries will be able to sustain the refugee situation. The US ourselves have barely assimilated the thousands of Afghan refugees that came to the US after the disastrous fall of Afghanistan, not to mention the thousands more that we should be rescuing. So wanted or not, almost the whole world is involved, if not in supplying arms and supplies to Ukraine in at least accepting refugees.
Do we have two major alliances going in conflict with each other? YES. NATO and the European Union in support of Ukraine and in support of Russia and handful of ex-soviet satellites like Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kyrgyzstan, and Cuba. India has so far remained neutral, and we already discussed the situation in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. And then, there is China. Perhaps the one country that can make a difference, one way or another, continues to try to play both sides, and is doing so pretty successful.
TIME is running out, both for Vladimir Putin to produce a victory of some kind, but also for the millions of refugees and displaced Ukrainians. There will be a time when the hosting nations will not be able to take more and support these refugees, therefore demanding action to terminate the conflict.
What will Putin do?
- Non-negotiated withdrawal and occupation. As the Russian continue to lose momentum and maybe eventually ground; President Putting could just retreat to the pre-war borders but keeping Crimea and the two separate republics occupied with Russian soldiers. Sue for peace and declare victory.
- Negotiated withdrawal. Ukraine agrees to remain neutral/non-NATO, Zelensky remains in power, status-quo on Crimea, and the two breakaway republics. Meaning, we will do this all over again in a couple of years.
- Go ALL-IN in Ukraine. Regretfully, this would mean the use of the massive non-precision artillery that the Russian Army is known for. Massive use of Spetsnaz, Russian special forces, behind lines basically killing everything that moves. The commitment of more active-duty forces perhaps from other districts, and the activation of reserve forces. Basically, the destruction of all Ukrainian infrastructure. Eventually, but at great cost, Putin will prevail. Ukraine would have to capitulate if for no other reason than to stop the extermination of its civilian population. In one month, over 10 million people have been forced to run for their lives, leaving their homes and belongings. Over 6.5 million are displaced inside Ukraine and 3.7 million people have been forced to flee the country. These numbers are rising daily. Some 13 million people are estimated to be stranded in affected areas or unable to leave due to heightened security risks, destruction of bridges and roads, as well as lack of resources or information on where to find safety and accommodation.*15 By comparison, the Nazi occupation of Ukraine ended the lives of millions of civilians in The Holocaust and other Nazi mass killings: it is estimated 900,000 to 1.6 million Jews and 3 to 4 million non-Jewish Ukrainians were killed during the occupation; other sources estimate that 5.2 million Ukrainian civilians of all ethnic groups died. *16 For a pre-war population estimated at 44 million plus, almost 10% of it is now in exile, and 30% are at risk of dying due to the war, whether it be by the artillery shells or the lack of food and medicine, makes no difference. The human toll is inconceivable.
Once again, we must ask, how much is enough? At what point do we or NATO has to intervene for humanitarian reasons. Either by enforcing no-fly zones to protect evacuation routes, by mobilizing transportation assets to evacuate those civilians, or by sending in ground troops to stop the Russian advance, all of which would bring us closer to an all-out shooting war with Russia.
- Mr. Putin does have an option that will achieve the same results but at a lower cost; a limited tactical nuclear strike, more than likely in Ukraine’s western border, in strategically located places that would prevent a deployment of NATO into Ukraine. Mr. Putin already placed his nuclear forces in alert and has threaten to use its arsenal through the conflict. The US and NATO have discussed contingencies for such actions, and that was one of the topics that were due to be discussed I this week’s NATO meeting which President Biden attended. Administration officials have stated that the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction would change the conditions that President Biden has used to keep American forces out of Ukraine, and that such use would put “all bets of the table”. *17 Such use, however, is not completely inconceivable, as “escalate, to de-escalate”, as in the use of a tactical nuke, is a term known in Russian military doctrine in which it would employ a nuclear weapon as a warning — and then negotiate.
The Ukrainian invasion has been a huge setback for President Putin. A 3-day special operation is now beginning its second month. The Russian loses have been staggering, and overall, even the best Russian units have shown leadership, training, and logistical problems. The Russian Army may not be as fierce or unbeatable as once believe. A key indicator has been the deployment of the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Order of Lenin Red Banner Tank Division and the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Tamanskaya Order of the October Revolution, Order of the Red Banner and Order of Suvorov Division, historically considered the best Russian divisions with their T-90 Main Battle Tanks. Both divisions are part of the 1st Guard Tank Army, Western Military District. The 2nd guard’s division is slated to receive the first new T-14 Armata MBT in 2022. Although Ukraine forces have destroyed and capture T-90 tanks, their military units have not been identified in the press but are believed to be I the conflict. If these elite divisions can barely hold their water against the Ukrainian Army, are they any match to US or NATO units? Probably not. The Russian Army will have to reorganize, re-train, re-supply, before embarking into another operation. This has put the Russian expansion on-hold.
After such manpower and equipment loses, the reported shortages of Russian ammunitions and guided missiles, logistical problems, and monetary isolation it is unlikely that Mr. Putin would embark in riskier and bigger operations like Georgia. And even a limited invasion of Moldova would be enough of a reason for NATO to get involved and push the soviet army back to its borders.
With time running out, the main concern is once again “how far is Putin willing to go to remain in power?” The good news is that Putin controls all soviet media. So, any and all deals will be reported as a clear victory for Putin and Russia, no matter to what terms are agreed upon. And yes, we will have to agree to some terms, whatever they may be, because a wounded and cornered Putin, losing control over power, could see no option but to start a nuclear World War III. At that point, only the Kremlin itself, and the powers to be, can interfere and prevent a nuclear Armageddon.
*4 https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/majority-swedes-favour-joining-nato-poll-2022-03-04/
*5 https://www.thelocal.at/20220304/explained-why-isnt-austria-in-nato/
*8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I66G1-8dXlk
*10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B71pK82T5rA
*13 https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701688
*14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Ground_Forces
*17 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/politics/biden-russia-nuclear-weapons.html